Friday, October 28, 2016

What Happened? Why the Polls Got It So WRONG!

Establishment Pollster on the morning of November 9, 2016
In all of the allegedly “scientific” polls published by the establishment media (CNN, ABC, CBS News, The Wall Street Journal, Fox News, etc.) participants are selected using a weighting factor that results in significantly more Democrats participating than Republicans. The justification is that more voters are registered as Democrats than Republicans which is true. Unfortunately for the pollsters, that method has been invalidated by 2016's unprecedented circumstances.

During the presidential primaries the relative number of party registrants proved worthless as a method of projecting vote totals. Final figures show that 749,790 more people voted in the Republican primaries (28,584,625) than in the Democrat primaries (27,834,835) with many Democrats “crossing over” to cast their ballots for Trump. Trump, incidentally, drew more primary election votes than any Republican candidate in history. Had the "scientific" network polls been weighted by primary participation rather than party registration, Hillary’s illusory big lead would never have appeared.

Blinded by their own biases, the mainstream media and the Clinton campaign are essentially repeating this mistake when they interpret the result of early voting. They assume that registered Democrats who vote are casting their ballots for Hillary and that registered Republicans who vote are voting for Trump. These assumptions are likely to prove false.

The relative size of rally crowds are instructive. Trump rallies usually fill stadiums whereas Hillary often struggles to fill college auditoriums. A recent Florida rally for Democrat vice presidential candidate Tim Kaine drew thirty people, most of whom were reporters and campaign staff. Another Kaine event, scheduled for this week, was abruptly cancelled without explanation.

Readily obtainable social media data should also be giving the establishment media, the DNC, and the Clinton campaign pause. For what it's worth, Trump has 12.8 million Twitter followers and Hillary Clinton has only 10.1 million. Moreover, according to The Washington Examiner, 41 percent of Hillary's alleged followers are fakes, created by a Clinton's paid trolls! In contrast, The Daily Caller says that Trump's followers are 90% real having previous voting records. Other sources report that Trump has 12,174,358 Facebook "likes" compared to Hillary Clinton's 4,835,959.

Absent a totally fraudulent election, it appears likely that there will be a "Trump Slide" on November 8th. The establishment would be well advised to respect the people's wishes.

FJB

This site is not affiliated with any political party. Its goals are to advocate for individual liberty, traditional morality, and domestic peace and to resist all forms of tyranny and statism. It reflects the point of view of a life-long constitutionalist and recovering Republican. If you are among the millions trying to understand what has happened to the GOP, please visit "Who Killed the Republican Party?" If you agree with the content of this post, please feel free to print and distribute it or forward the link to your political representatives at the state and federal level Thank you for your interest.